Forecast Earthquake List

TONGA M 8.1 +/- 0.1 now likely on Sep 21 +/- 2 days (2025) within 200 km of Tonga’s capital Nuku'alofa (Lat -21.266 Lon -175.179).

As of Aug 8, this event was expected within 250 km of the 2006 M 8.0 epicentre (Lat -20.187 Lon -174.123); see additional information in Earthquake Forecast Details and Google Earth Pro map in next section. Please also see Disclaimer and the note that all times are always UTC.

Forecast details are updated at least fortnightly, if necessary.
*The average error margin for over 100 retrospective forecasts has been approximately +/-0.2_M for all mainshocks, regardless of magnitude; also, the ecological approach is quite robust and not sensitive to the different modern measures like the mw moment magnitude scales.

Cascadia Subduction Zone M 7.9-8.2 on about Dec 4, 2025.

Santiago, Chile M 7.4 on about Dec 12, 2025.
Forecast downgraded Sep 12 from M 7.8-8.0 previously expected on Nov 24.

Kathmandu, Nepal M 8.0 on about Jan 3, 2026.

Colima, Mexico M 8.0 on about Jan 7, 2026.

San Diego Region, CA, USA, M7.2 on about Apr 13, 2026.

Northern Turkey, M 7.6 on about May 5, 2026.