Forecast Earthquake List

Djibouti-Ethiopia Region, M 6.7-6.9 now due about Feb 1, 2026. Revised Dec 22, 2026, from “Djibouti Region M6.6 likely early Jan 2026” to include an approximate M 6.8 likely about Feb 1, nearer Addis Ababa at the centre of the East Africa Rift.

Tasman Sea, South of NZ, M8.0-M8.2 likely about Feb 28, 2026.

Tonga M 8.1 +/- 0.1 Now unlikely before end of Mar 2026 within 500 km of Tonga's capital (Lat -21.134 Lon -175.200). [Forecast revised Nov 30, 2025, as a result of a new mathematical modelling breakthrough tested retrospectively on worldwide events, and now  expected to greatly increase the accuracy and reliability of forecasts. All events listed below are under review and, as a result, a major Cascadia Subduction Zone event is extremely unlikely before 2030, whereas before there was concern it could be possible this December.]

See additional information in Earthquake Forecast Details and Google Earth Pro map in next section. Please also see Disclaimer and the note that all times are always UTC.

Forecast details are updated at least fortnightly, if necessary.
*The average error margin for over 100 retrospective forecasts has been approximately +/-0.2_M for all mainshocks, regardless of magnitude; also, the ecological approach is quite robust and not sensitive to the different modern measures like the mw moment magnitude scale.

San Diego Region, CA, USA, M 7.2 highly likely April 2026.

Northern Türkiye, M 7.6 likely May 2026.

Bengkulu Region, Sumatra, M 8.4 about June 2026.

Santiago-Concepcion region, Chile, M 8.0 about June-July, 2026.

Simeulue Region, Northern Sumatra, M 7.5 about Sep-Oct, 2026.

Dominica Region, Caribbean, M 7.4 likely Oct-Nov 2026.

Honshu, Japan, M 8.4 likely early Dec, 2026. (Upgraded on Dec 12 from M8.2 in May to M8.4 in early Dec 2026.)

Cascadia Subduction Zone, M 8.0 possibly December, 2026.

Acapulco Region, Mexico, M 7.2-7.4 likely early Jan, 2027.

East New Britain, PNG, M 7.6 2027.

Gulf of Alaska, Yakutat region, M 8.0, 2028.

Hawaii M 7.7, 2030.

Antofagasta M 8.0 forecast cancelled.

Updates: Jan 4, 2026.