Earthquake Forecasts

Modelling points strongly to the likelihood of these select major seismic events

  • Now expected Mid-April, 2026, about Apr 18

    Forecast based on revised modelling.
    See Djibouti and Afar Triangle page.

  • *The previous forecast for a M 6.4 foreshock about Apr 2 has been downgraded to a M 6, now unlikely before the next ‘window’ of Apr 16-21, derived from the lunar monthly Timing Modules. This would also defer the expected M 7 mainshock to near the end of May, 2026.

  • Now likely about April 21, 2026, three days earlier than forecast on Mar 25.

  • possibly within 250km of Istanbul, about May 2026.

  • about June 2026.

  • about Sept-Oct, 2026.

  • about Sept-Oct, 2026.

  • likely Oct-Nov, 2026.

  • likely early Dec 2026
    (upgraded on Dec 12 from M8.2 in May to M8.4 in early Dec 2026).

  • possibly December, 2026. More Cascadia info on this page.

    Expected at the southern end of the Cascadia Subduction Zone between mid Oregon and Cape Mendocino, Northern California, or at the northern end of the San Andreas Fault system.

  • likely early Jan, 2027.

  • Likely March, 2027.

  • Now not expected until end of April, 2027.

  • 2027.

  • 2028.

  • 2030.

NOTE: Our most recent successful prospective forecast was for the M_7.0 Cape Mendocino event on Dec 5, 2024, whose magnitude and date were forecast exactly and advised ahead by email to several people, including a seismologist in CA. It was also noted correctly, that the event would most likely occur within 150_km of the Cape.

PLEASE ALSO NOTE:

NO ATTEMPT IS MADE TO FORECAST ALL IMPORTANT SEISMIC EVENTS. Nor does the author claim to know about all upcoming earthquakes.
Forecasts may change as the latest seismic events are incorporated into the models (see Disclaimer) and note all times are UTC.

Updated April 9, 2026