Djibouti & “Afar Triangle”
a cradle of human evolution
Head of vast continental rift
The Afar Triangle - also known as the Afar Depression - is clearly seen in the figures below as a light grey triangular region at the head of the vast 3000-km East African Rift which enters the Afar Depression at its southwest corner.
The Afar Depression is now the hottest place on earth for year-round temperatures, but was once possibly the very cradle of humanity. It is now a 'hotbed' of earthquake activity, as shown in Figure 2.
This is because the Afar Depression sits at the junction of three tectonic plates – Arabian, Nubian (African) and Somalian plates – and contains the so-called Afar Triple Junction which is said to be at Lat 11.30, Lon 43.00, only some 35 km SW of Djibouti City: all three M 6.2-6.5 earthquakes of 1989-1992 occurred within 140 km of this Afar Triple Junction (Figures 3-4), and Figure 2 shows a very strong cluster of large events about this point.
The three arms of the Triple Junction - East African, Red Sea and Aden Rifts (Fig. 1) - are said to have a near-perfect separation 120 degrees between each. However, where are the most important earthquakes occurring?
Most of the important earthquakes in this region are confined to the Afar Triangle or Depression: their spatial and temporal occurrence and population dynamics are the subject of this investigation which is devoted to developing practicable early forecasts of large events to save lives and property.
Figure 1
Fig. 1.
Sequence of Largest Annual Earthquakes in the 'Afar Triangle' and border areas, within the given coordinates. Note that five totally independent modelling approaches yield very similar estimates for the size of the forthcoming mainshock in 2026. The M 4.3 mathematically-critical precursor (PC) of 2016 is shown on the attached Google Earth image as just offshore Djibouti and close to the M 5.4 foreshock of 2024. The general overall decline in the size of annual events between the mainshock of 1989, and the lowest point (the CP M4.3 of 2016) was significant (P<0.018), and the rapid rise following the 27-year decline is obvious, if not somewhat ominous.
This event is certainly imminent, but when?
(answered via the author’s specialised timing models)
So far, Feb 1-2?
Figure 2.
This USGS Earthquake Search image shows the distribution of 123 M 5.0 and greater events since 1989 in the Afar Triangle region which is also known as the ‘Afar Depression’ by earth scientists. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afar_Triangle).
Figure 3.
This image of the Djibouti region shows the locations of important earthquakes relative to both the 1989 M 6.5 mainshock and the current expectation for a M 6.5 event on about Feb 1, 2026. The view shows mathematically-critical precursors (CP) and foreshocks for both periods: these are all offshore close to Djibouti City, in the nearby Gulf of Tajura, whereas all M 6 events are on land within 100 km of the coast. The CP events for both periods are of a very similar magnitude, as are the foreshocks. The next mainshock is also expected to match that of 1989”. [credits to Google Earth Pro and USGS Earthquake Catalogue].
Figure 4
This closer view of Djibouti shows more clearly the relative positions of important precursors and foreshocks preceding the mainshocks, as already outlined for Figure 3.
Figure 5.
Sequence of largest monthly magnitudes between new moons since January 2025 in the Afar Triangle region within the given coordinates
It is fascinating that the patterns in a graph like this are a microcosm of yearly patterns, with several of the main features:
(1) A high degree of parallelism between events which the author has found throughout his entire career to be perhaps the most important expression of symmetry within bodies of data; it also confirms here a high level of homogeneity for this body of interacting earthquakes.
(2) Another form of symmetry, or parallelism, is in the timing of major events: most mainshocks are preceded by a major event ‘one year’ prior to the main event (or an expected event) as here we see a M 5.9 on Feb 14, 2025, and M 6.5 mainshock thought due on Feb 1-2 according to specialised timing models.
(3) As in Figure 5, any long sequence of largest annual or monthly events will exhibit a decline after the first large event followed by a build-up to the next mainshock. In the mid sequence of low events there may be a period of no recorded events above M 3.8, as here in Figure 5 with nothing recorded for two months.
(4) There is usually a strong drop in events prior to the mainshock: indeed, there may be no further events prior to the final week; in the case of Japan’s M 9.1 this period lasted one month with no events above M 4.0 until the final week.
Figure 6.
This graph shows the flow of time between the largest monthly events in the same lunar periods as for Figure 5. The time between consecutive monthly events is plotted for each month as the number of days since the previous largest NM-NM event (Y-axis), in relation to the actual day of each month’s largest event plotted on the X-axis. This kind of data should produce curves which oscillate about the lunar period of approximately 29.5 days, as the last six points do at a mean of 29.7 days apart. The values prior to all large events, or mainshocks, resolve towards the mean level – and this graph gives us, via parallelisms and a linear fall-off, an expected Feb 2 event, at 29 days since the previous event.
Sources: The Afar Triangle - www.researchgate.net, www.volcanocafe.org, Afar Triangle - Wikipedia and USGS Earthquake Catalogue, Google Earth Pro.