The ecological model for forecasting mainshock earthquakes has been developed to help predict the magnitude and timing of future mainshock earthquakes within a specific area. This approach is designed specifically for mainshocks and incorporates a range of analytical modules that focus on different timeframes and cycles.

Analytical Modules

The model is organised into Magnitude & Timing Modules, which are further subdivided into Yearly, Lunar Monthly, Half-Monthly, and Daily Modules. Each module targets a particular aspect of earthquake forecasting, allowing for a detailed analysis across various temporal scales.

Mainshock Analytical Module

For instance, the “Mainshock Analytical Module” is used to calculate the likely magnitude of the next mainshock. This is achieved by analysing the largest yearly earthquake events that have occurred since the previous mainshock in the region.

Mainshock Yearly Timing Module

In contrast, the Mainshock Yearly Timing Module focuses on estimating when a mainshock is likely to occur. It does this by examining fluctuations in the time intervals between the largest yearly events, providing an evidence-based estimate for the timing of the next mainshock.

Lunar Monthly Modules

Additionally, a variety of lunar monthly modules are applied to analyse changes in both the magnitude and timing of seismic events. These modules help identify corroborative patterns that further inform the likely magnitude and timing of forthcoming mainshocks.