Lunar Monthly Modules
Exploring the Role of Lunar Cycles in Earthquake Dynamics
Introduction
The research that led to the development of these analytical and descriptive modules began approximately twenty-one years ago, just days after the catastrophic tsunami in Banda Aceh, which was triggered by a magnitude 9.1 mega earthquake. This event served as the catalyst for a new line of ecological inquiry into major earthquakes.
To further understand the causes and timing of significant seismic events, the author approached the problem from an ecological perspective. The initial hypothesis posited that the main environmental factor influencing both the magnitude and timing of earthquakes would be the bimonthly tidal forces impacting both land and sea. Early investigations revealed pronounced differences between the Full Moon and New Moon periods of the lunar month when examining various patterns associated with earthquake dynamics.
Additionally, the author theorized that the largest events, in any given location and time, are the most significant, as they can be modeled to provide a meaningful index of the output, production, or response of a complex system to key influencing factors. This concept underpins the creation of the various Lunar Monthly Analytical Modules.
Examples of the Lunar Monthly Modules
Examples of these analytical modules are regularly published on this website. The most recent addition, Figure 9, was introduced at the start of March 20 in the Djibouti & ‘Afar Triangle’ page.
The Lunar Monthly Magnitude Modules simply plot the dates of the largest monthly events, whereas the Timing Modules plot the time interval between consecutive monthly events. Specifically, the number of days since the previous largest New Moon-to-New Moon (NM-NM) event is represented on the Y-axis, while the actual day of each month's largest event is shown on the X-axis. In these analyses, the interval between events is expected to oscillate around the lunar period, which is approximately 29.5 days. In the presented case, the mean interval is 30.0 days.
The values preceding all large events, or mainshocks, are expected to converge towards this mean value. The data in this analysis demonstrate such a convergence, suggesting that the anticipated event may indeed occur on about March 20, or some 30 days after the previous largest event.