The ecological model for forecasting mainshock earthquakes has been developed to help predict the magnitude and timing of future mainshock earthquakes within a specific area. This approach is designed specifically for mainshocks and incorporates a range of analytical modules that focus on different timeframes and cycles.

Analytical Modules

The model is organised into Magnitude & Timing Modules, which are further subdivided into Yearly, Lunar Monthly, Half-Monthly, and Daily Modules. Each module targets a particular aspect of earthquake forecasting, allowing for a detailed analysis across various temporal scales.

Mainshock Analytical Module

For instance, the “Mainshock Analytical Module” is used to calculate the likely magnitude of the next mainshock. This is achieved by analysing the largest yearly earthquake events that have occurred since the previous mainshock in the region.

Mainshock Ratio Module

The Mainshock Ratio Module provides a linear correlation for the size of mainshocks relative to ratios between previous magnitude levels. This approach provides an independent estimate for the size of the forthcoming mainshock and, primarily, relies on these ratios as indicators to determine whether there is enough seismic activity to justify making a forecast.

In contrast, the Mainshock Yearly Timing Module focuses on estimating when a mainshock is likely to occur. It does this by examining fluctuations in the time intervals between the largest yearly events, providing an evidence-based estimate for the timing of the next mainshock.

Mainshock Yearly Timing Module

Lunar Monthly Modules

Additionally, a variety of lunar monthly modules are applied to analyse changes in both the magnitude and timing of seismic events. These modules help identify corroborative patterns that further inform the likely magnitude and timing of forthcoming mainshocks.

Triangular Analytical Module

The Triangular Analytical Module highlights proportional and angular relationships among key events before a mainshock, ensuring cross-validation with other Modules.

Foreshock Analytical Module

The Foreshock Analytical Module gives the linear correlation between mainshocks and foreshocks showing that mainshocks are on average about one magnitude greater than their corresponding foreshock. This indicates that a foreshock peak—typically registering about one magnitude less than the expected mainshock—may be detectable well in advance, potentially even years before the primary seismic event occurs.